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Friday 3rd August Blue Jays vs Mariners Free Baseball Picks

My free play is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners took two of three from the Angels from July 3-5, giving them a 56-32 record. However, Seattle has since lost 14 of 21 to fall to 63-46 and into third-place in the AL West, as the 64-46 Oakland A’s have edged past them into second-place in the division. The Mariners lost 7-3 last night to the Blue Jays and look to break out of their current funk when they host Toronto on Friday for the second contest of their four-game series. Kendrys Morales hit a tie-breaking two-run HR in the seventh inning to help the Blue Jays win, but the victory was just the team’s third time in its last 10 games. Toronto is going nowhere at 49-59, a record which leaves them 26 games back of the MLB-best Boston Red Sox in the AL East.

A pair of lefties will take the mound tonight, Ryan Borucki (0-2, 2.83 ERA) for Toronto and Marco Gonzales (12-5, 3.37 ERA) for Seattle. Borucki is making his seventh start of the season but despite allowing fewer than three runs in five of his first six outings (2.83 ERA / 28-11 KW ratio and no HRs allowed in 35 innings), he remains in search of his first win (Jays are just 2-4 in his starts). As for Seattle’s Gonzales, he’s been a huge surprise. He began the season with just five career wins over 22 appearances, including 14 starts. However, he takes the mound tonight the winner of five consecutive starts while posting a 1.57 ERA over 34 1/3 innings during that stretch. Gonzales owns a team-high 12 wins and Seattle is 15-6 in his 2018 starts, going plus-$808 vs the moneyline (MLB’s 8th-best mark). He has never faced Toronto.

Seattle went 10-13 in July, while averaging a major league low 3.3 runs per game. For the first time in 2 1/2 months, the Mariners are not in playoff position. I don’t expect that to be the case for long and I love the way Gonzales has performed. His home ERA (2.88) is almost a full run lower than his road ERA (3.80) and the Mariners are 8-2 in his 10 home starts this season (Gonzales is 5-1). When the Mariners score four or more runs this season, they’re 43-13. If It’s three or fewer, they’re 19-33. Look for four-plus runs for Seattle tonight, which should be more than enough with Gonzales on the hill.

Good luck…Larry

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